SP Seth Nordlin: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 72 P / 48 S, 4.15 ERA
Spencer Howard struck out five, walked none, and allowed only two hits in three innings, but both hits were souvenirs. Marc Church threw fewer than half his pitches for strikes but escaped a self-induced bases-loaded pickle in the 9th. Blaine Crim and Elier Hernandez singled back-to-back in the 2nd, accounting for the team’s only hits.
SP Ryan Garcia: 3.1 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 3 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 78 P / 48 S, 6.82 ERA RP Aidan Anderson: 3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 4.26 ERA DH Aaron Zavala: 1-4, HR (4), BB, .215/.366/.316 SS Luisangel Acuna: 2-5, SB (37), .305/.368/.434 CF Evan Carter: 2-4, HR (10), BB, .302/.414/.472 C Liam Hicks: 2-3, BB, .235/.371/.402
Evan Carter hit his tenth homer. The slightly younger Jackson Merrill, San Diego’s best prospect, hit his first AA homer.
The bullpen has been scary at times, but Aidan Anderson, Grant Wolfram, and Matt Bush combined for 5.2 scoreless innings, and Wolfram also stranded three bequeathed runners.
Hi-A: wet
Two today.
Lo-A: Down East 3, Salem (BOS) 8 Down East: 4 hits, 8 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 7 strikeouts Record: 10-11, 2 GB, 47-35 overall
SP Aidan Curry: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 61 P / 36 S, 2.41 ERA C Ian Moller: 2-3, 2B, HR (5), BB, HBP, .178/.313/.305
I’d mentioned Ian Moller’s quiet July yesterday, and he had his best game of the month. I only use my powers for good. Aidan Curry allowed a run for the first time in four outings but was generally up to par. Not so the bullpen, which surrendered seven runs, two by 22-year-old Bryan Magdaleno in his low-A debut.
Today’s Starters AAA: King AA: Krauth Hi-A: Corniell Lo-A: TBA
Five Years Ago Yesterday Texas called up Willie Calhoun to replace an injured Nomar Mazara. He would bat .275/.325/.391 in 22 games before heading back to AAA for a couple of weeks.
SP Yerry Rodriguez: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 34 P / 25 S, 3.94 ERA RP Cole Winn: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 7.10 ERA RP Edwar Colina: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 5.23 ERA SS Davis Wendzel: 1-3, HR (18), BB, .250/.376/.511 1B Dustin Harris: 2-4, 2B, 3B, .308/.451/.523
A trio combined for a two-hit shutout on 111 pitches. Pressed into opening duty when original starter Taylor Hearn was DFA’ed, Yerry Rodriguez managed three innings on just 34 pitches.
Cole Winn had one of his best outings of the season, getting 15 swinging strikes out of 35 swings and 65 total pitches. Winn sometimes offers quirky pitch mixes as he tries to work on things or sticks with what might work best, but last night featured straightforward proportions of his four pitches. Not to be a jerk about it (I hope), but we have been down this road long enough to need a new set of tires, so what we’re looking for is improved performance across multiple outings. To some extent, we have them, as Winn has performed better in six long relief appearances (3.26 ERA, .174/.269/.275 oppo line, 12% BB/HBP), albeit with some shaky outings mixed with nights like Wednesday.
SP Justin Slaten: 1 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 38 P / 24 S, 2.60 ERA LF Aaron Zavala: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, .214/.365/.301
A calamitous bullpen night. Justin Slaten gave up a three-run homer in the 2nd, after which Robby Ahlstrom allowed two more runs that inning in his AA debut. San Antonio batted around without making an out in a seven-run 8th.
SP Winston Santos: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 2 SO, 79 P / 54 S, 4.75 ERA RP Nick Lockhart: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA C Cody Freeman: 2-4, 2B, SB (5), .219/.274/.397 1B Abi Ortiz: 2-4, 2 HR (15), .348/.404/.752 LF Jayce Easley: 1-4, HR (1), .203/.349/.258
Abi Orti has 22 homers in 67 games. Nine minor league hitters have at least 14 homers and HR rate of at least 7% of plate appearances. Their ages: 29 – Austin Allen 29 – DJ Stewart 28 – Bobby Dalbec 26 – Drew Lugbauer 26 – Luken Baker 24 – Elehuris Montero 24 – Jo Adell 23 – Ivan Melendez (Hook ’em) 21 – Abimelec Ortiz
Winston Santos has pitched only twice in July, both starts exploring the idea of giving up singles and nothing else. Santos has allowed 14 singles, one double, and no walks this month.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Salem (BOS) 6 Down East: 9 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 5 walks, 15 strikeouts Record: 10-10, 1.5 GB, 47-34 overall
SP DJ McCarty: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 46 P / 28 S, 2.74 ERA RP Dylan MacLean: 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 3.00 ERA RP Damian Mendoza: 3 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 5.54 ERA SS Danyer Cueva: 2-4, HBP, .264/.308/.381 RF Tommy Specht: 2-4, 2B, .237/.352/.319
A raft of Ducks combined for 15 strikeouts but had the worse of it on the scoreboard.
I haven’t mentioned 3B Gleider Figuereo or C Ian Moller at all in July. Figuereo is hitting .163/.241/.184 this month, Moller .088/.244/.088.
Five Years Ago Yesterday In the last for the Express in Colorado Springs, Round Rock defeated the Sky Sox 4-3. In the four-game series, Drew Robinson had three singles, six extra-base hits, and four walks. Colorado Springs was relegated to the short-season Pioneer League in 2019 and remained there when it was reclassified as an independent “partner” league of MLB.
Speas Texas has purchased the contract of 2016 2nd-round pick RHP Alex Speas.
Speas’s stretches of statistical success in real games have been remarkably limited. A month-plus at short-season Spokane in 2017. A month in Hickory in 2018 preceding elbow surgery. The past three months, more-or-less. That’s it, in seven years since being drafted. I don’t point this out to demean him. Far from it. I just want to emphasize how unlikely and remarkable his ascent.
Speas lorded over low-A hitters in 2018 before blowing out his elbow. Most (in)famously, he registered glowing reports in side sessions in 2020, such that a Major League debut was under consideration. That didn’t happen, and by the time the broader populace got an extended look, whatever magic he possessed at that time had vanished. During a dire 2021, he had a one-in-three chance of not being able to complete an inning. He retired to become a youth coach in 2022. He returned rejuvenated this season and generated some heat prior to to my arrival in Surprise. I made a point of watching him, but my assessment was lukewarm: “A year out of baseball hasn’t cost Alex Speas any velocity, nor has it aided his control. He ranged from 97 to 99 with the fastball plus a 91-92 MPH slider. He missed several bats but struggled to find the plate.” No offense, but I’d seen this before. But after a few so-so- outings, Speas began showing the form that precipitated his MLB debut.
Speas’ control in 2023 is still below average (12% BB/HBP) but not bad by current standards, and he’s struck out 40% of opponents with an oppo line of .158/.260/.221. Statcast lists Speas with five different pitches: four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider, sweeper. I’m skeptical of that number, but regardless, Speas does at least have the ability to manipulate what he throws across a broad range of horizontal and vertical movement.
Round Rock Express pitchers have reached triple-digit velocity 12 times during 2022-2023. Ten of those pitches belong to Speas, topping at 101.5 MPH. Six were balls, another a single, none for swinging strikes. Impressive though it is, pure velocity is not responsible for his success. What has elevated Speas to this level is a monstrous cutter averaging 92 and reaching up to 98. He’s throwing it two-thirds of the time, he’s throwing it for strikes two-thirds of the time, and opponents are missing it on 44% of their swings. Speas has also thrown a handful of mid-80s pitches classified as sliders or sweepers. They have the same spin rate and more horizontal movement as the cutter, and they’ve largely been ineffective.
Is there reason for concern? Sure. To reiterate, Speas has a lengthy history of poor control, even at his best. In an admittedly small sample, the exit velos off him in AAA are well above average. Opponents are hitting .417 when they put a ball in play. But on the whole, Speas has earned this chance.
Unfortunately, I do not have personal video. He’s only pitched in Round Rock twice, and his schedule and mine haven’t meshed. I had expected him to pitch tonight in Round Rock and was planning to attend. I’m okay with missing that opportunity under the circumstances.
The unfortunate consequence of Speas’ addition is that LHP Taylor Hearn was designated for assignment. Hearn was okay overall in Round Rock (3.66 ERA, .232/.352/.338 oppo line, 16% BB/HBP, 30% SO), allowing only two homers in a nasty environment but often struggling with control. On a team and in an era where so many relievers look the part if you catch them on the right day, Hearn hadn’t set himself apart enough to get a callback since being optioned in mid-April. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in another organization in a few days via claim or trade.
History Of A Sort The Rangers are over .500 in a 162-game span for the first time in nearly six years. On September 12, 2017, the Rangers were 82-80 in their most recent 162. They fell to .500 with a loss the next day, not to return to a 162-game winning record for 822 games and 2,135 days. Good as they’ve been this season, clawing back to above .500 in a 162-game set has been difficult because the worst stretch of 2022 was in the second half, and those games haven’t begun falling into the distance until recently.
Are the Rangers emerging from their worst stretch in franchise history? That depends on the definition. Roughly, every worst stretch where the number of games is 440 or below incorporates the 1972-1973 period (and into 1974 at the longest lengths). And nearly every worst stretch from 440 to 1,000 games encompasses recent history. What about 1982-1985, when the Rangers were a combined 272-374? Recent history was actually worse. At the end of 2022, the Rangers had fewer wins (as few as 269) over the same number of games.
For what it’s worth, I ignore the 11 years in Washington in these calculations because 1) it was Washington, and 2) the ’72 Rangers were bad enough that they can be thought of as an expansion team.
Transactions Up to Frisco: LHP Robby Ahlstrom Up to Hickory: RHP Jacob Maton, IF Cam Cauley Up to Down East: RHP Bryan Chi, LHP Brayan Magdaleno To IL: RHP Mitch Bratt To Rehab: OF Miguel Villarroel Released: RHP Eudrys Manon
Manon was part of that eight-walk, eight-run meltdown against Midland two weeks ago, and even by recent standards his control had been exceptionally poor: 34 BB/HBP in 20.2 innings at Frisco. Getting a hit against him was a tough task, but any batter with a decent eye had a fighting chance to reach base.
SP Robert Dugger: 0.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0 SO, 36 P / 20 S, 5.02 ERA RP Fernery Ozuna: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 3.89 ERA RP Jake Latz: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 6.14 ERA RP Chase Lee: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 3.02 ERA 1B Blaine Crim: 1-3, BB, .276/.395/.502 SS Jonathan Ornelas: 2-3, BB, .266/.376/.367
Robert Dugger has been Round Rock’s MVP in a manner of speaking, consistently delivering five or six innings for a squad that doesn’t really have a rotation anymore. Last night wasn’t his night.
What I’d planned to write about Blaine Crim will have to wait a day.
SP Dane Acker: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 2 SO, 74 P / 42 S, 3.00 ERA RP Nick Starr: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 6.69 ERA RP Matt Bush: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA LF Aaron Zavala: 3-5, .212/.360/.294 CF Evan Carter: 2-3, 3B, HR (9), 2 BB, .302/.411/.465
Evan Carter is hitting .354/.426/.622 in 21 games since returning from Arizona.
Dane Acker has been successful in 2023 but lacking a middle ground with his control.
As for other competitors for a Texas bullpen spot, Matt Bush certainly has the experience, but I don’t think that imparts much of an advantage at this point. Bush’s velocity has been down, and he was very homer-prone with Milwaukee. He’s a worthy addition for stabilizing one of the upper-level bullpens, but probably not beyond that. We’ll see.
SP Luis Tejada: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 76 P / 38 S, 4.65 ERA RP Larson Kindreich: 3.2 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 2 R, 6 BB, 6 SO, 5.65 ERA 3B Keyber Rodriguez: 3-4, .270/.329/.351 DH Max Acosta: 3-5, 2B, .268/.318/.373 RF Abi Ortiz: 2-5, HR (13), .343/.401/.715 SS Cam Cauley: 3-4, 3 SB (3)
20-year-old Cam Cauley announced his presence with authority in his high-A debut. Cauley batted .244/.331/.405 in low-A, which might sound vanilla but is actually a slug-driven 119 OPS+ at pitcher-friendly Down East. Cauley has shown more power than I anticipated. One item to watch is his strikeout rate, which has consistently hovered just over 30% regardless of year or level.
19 minor leaguers have 20 homers. Abimelec Ortiz and Chris Newell (a 22-year-old with the Dodgers) are the only two to accomplish that feat entirely below AA. Colorado’s Jordan Beck also hit 20 in high-A before advancing to AA and collecting one more.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Salem (BOS) 2 Down East: 6 hits, 8 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 4 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts Record: 10-9, 0.5 GB, 47-33 overall
SP Leandro Lopez: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 64 P / 41 S, 3.42 ERA RP Jackson Leath: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.73 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, .253/.318/.315 RF Tommy Specht: 1-2, 2 BB, .229/.348/.305 2B Andres Mesa: 1-4, HR (4), .176/.252/.324
Somebody wearing Leandro Lopez’s jersey made a whale of a start last night. Okay, that’s not fair, but Lopez has almost always succeeded despite his control. not because of it. Lopez’s curve is already beyond what the typical low-A hitter can handle, and when he can throw strikes, he gets stellar results.
Tommy Specht is drawing walks and not striking out excessively, but since the end of June he’s hitting only .158 when he puts the bat on the ball. Specht turned 19 less than a month ago.
AAA: Round Rock 5, at Tacoma (SEA) 1 Round Rock: 10 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 8 walks, 8 strikeouts Record: 11-4, tied for first, 55-34 overall
SP Owen White: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 2 SO, 69 P / 38 S, 3.94 ERA C Sam Huff: 1-3, HR (13), BB, .298/.391/.541 SS Jonathan Ornelas: 3-4, .262/.372/.364 LF Sandro Fabian: 2-4, 2B, HR (12), .296/.342/.551
Some good and not so good for Owen White in his fourth AAA start. He allowed just one hit. He missed a better-than-average (for him, in 2023) 11 bats. He threw an unusually high ten changeups with good results (seven strikes, two misses, one ball in play for an out). He also walked four against just two strikeouts despite all the whiffs, and he now has more combined BB/HBP (11) than strikeouts (9) in AAA. White threw 84 pitches in his first start but no more than 69 since.
What with the pitching exploits yesterday, I neglected to mention that on his 43rd ball in play in AAA, Dustin Harris hit his first fair ball over 100 MPH. I’d previously mentioned how unusual that seemed relative to his teammates, but I hadn’t performed any serious research on the subject. After some slightly serious research, I can say that the number of MLB hitters with at least 25 balls in play but nothing over 99.9 MPH in 2023 is zero. The number in 2022 was two: David Fletcher (.255/.288/.333 that year) and Yolmer Sanchez (.108/.214/.108 in limited play). Complete lack of contact over 100 MPH is just exceptionally rare, even in small samples, especially in the case of someone like Harris whose median velocity of 91.2 is actually above the team average. Harris has six extra-base hits and a solid .190 isolated power in the friendly PCL, but if the lack of high-end velo persists, it has to dampen expectations at the MLB level.
I also neglected to mention that Zak Kent threw two scoreless innings with the rookies on Saturday. He suffered an oblique injury warming for his second start of the season. A healthy and effective Kent probably would have reached the Majors by now as a spot-starter or an in occasional supporting role in the pen.
SP Emiliano Teodo: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 SO, 62 P / 39 S, 4.13 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.63 ERA DH Tucker Mitchell: 1-3, HR (5), .283/.378/.451
Emiliano Teodo had a day reminiscent of his better 2022 outings, fanning half of his opponents including six straight from the 1st into the 3rd. Yohanse Morel, Nick Lockhart, Gavin Collyer, Jackson Kelley, and Reid Birlingmair combined for 4.2 innings of one-hit ball, all while nursing a 2-0 lead. Tucker Mitchell’s two-run homer in the 1st held up. Hickory was limited to a walk and HBP after the opening frame.
Lo-A: Down East 1, Charleston (TAM) 5 Down East: 4 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 12 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts Record: 9-9, 1.5 GB, 46-33 overall
SP Brayan Mendoza: 3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 57 P / 37 S, 2.74 ERA RP Alberto Mota: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 7.62 ERA RP Jacob Maton: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.54 ERA DH Cam Cauley: 2-4, .244/.331/.405
In the last five games, I’ve written a total of four hitter capsules, three being Anthony Gutierrez. Down East’s second-half line of .206/.288/.295 is tied for second-worst in the entire full-season minors, although a larger handful of teams have scored fewer runs.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Down East was in a worse offensive slump than now, scoring only six runs in a seven-game span. The Woodies had played 26 consecutive days. I don’t miss the old schedule.
SP Chase Lee: 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 41 P / 27 S, 3.13 ERA RP Fernery Ozuna: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 4.22 ERA RP Alex Speas: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 2.35 ERA RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.78 ERA 1B Blaine Crim: 1-3, HR (13), BB, .279/.396/.511 LF Dustin Harris: 2-4, BB, .327/.471/.527 C Matt Whatley: 3-5, .240/.329/.312
The sextet of Edwin Colina, Fernery Ozuna, Jake Latz, Yerry Rodriguez, Alex Speas, and Marc Church combined for 9.1 no-hit innings with two walks and 15 strikeouts. They, Chase Lee and Winn combined for an astounding 52 swinging strikes, 25% of all pitches and 50% of swings. Proving whiffs aren’t the end but a means, Cole Winn tallied two swinging strikes with five different batters, but four of them reached safely.
52 swinging strikes is the most by the Express this season by a huge margin. Admittedly, the game lasted 12 innings, but in terms of whiffs per inning it was also the most. Round Rock missed 38 bats in an 11-inning game in April and 34 in another bullpen-oriented nine-inning contest nine days ago.
Alex Speas issued a very wild pitch to the first batter of the 10th, moving the game-winning runner to third. “Can you strike out the side before another wild pitch?” I asked him through the screen. He could. Speas is throwing more triple-digit pitches than anyone else on the Express by far, but the upper-90s cutter is troubling hitters the most. His overall strike rate is a solid 62%.
For a while, the game story was “Cole Winn surrenders three-run homer, Blaine Crim hits two-run homer, oh well.” In the 9th, Matt Whatley snuck a grounder through the infield and then scored on a game-tying JP Martinez double. The Express broke through again in the 12th.
Per club media, the Express haven’t been 20 games over .500 this early in a season since 2006 as a Houston affiliate. Texas’s best-ever AAA team was in 2011, 87-57 overall but “only” 58-40 after 88 games. The 2023 version is slightly better so far.
SP Jose Corniell: 4.1 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 72 P / 49 S, 4.15 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 2.51 ERA
The game was shortened by rain but not enough for Jose Corniell’s taste. He suffered his worst start of the year.
Lo-A: Down East 2, Charleston (TAM) 11 Down East: 8 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 12 hits, 10 walks, 11 strikeouts Record: 9-8, tied for first, 46-32 overall
SP Brock Porter: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 4 SO, 68 P / 32 S, 2.57 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 1-3, BB, SB (16), .253/.321/.318
Brock Porter was a very particular type of effective, allowing one run despite some serious wildness even for him. He’s allowed 27 hits (only six for extra bases) but walked or hit 39.
Today’s Starters AAA: White AA: Bremer Hi-A: Teodo Lo-A: TBD
Five Years Ago Yesterday Reliever John Fasola would missed the rest of the season with a knee injury suffered backing up home plate. He’d returned from Tommy John surgery three months before. Fasola received notice from scouts and other onlookers in his surprise AAA debut in a May 2016 day game at Round Rock. He’d been sent there straight from high-A High Desert just to help out for a few days before joining Frisco, and he struck out four of six batters. Following knee surgery, Fasola would throw only 14 more affiliated innings, all for the Cardinals.
exas placed RHP Jack Leiter on the Development List again to work on his mechanics. Obviously not good news, but necessary. I’d prefer some time out of the box scores to Hickory, although I suppose it’s possible he could pitch at a lower level as part of this process.
LHP John King is up from Round Rock, replacing IL’ed Josh Sborz (biceps tendinitis).
SP Seth Nordlin: 4 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 65 P / 37 S, 6.75 ERA 3B Justin Foscue: 2-4, HR (11), BB, .281/.403/.510 C Sam Huff: 1-4, HR (12), BB, .303/.393/.540 1B Blaine Crim: 4-4, HR (12), BB, .279/.395/.502
Blaine Crim’s homer was the softest off his bat, 91.8 MPH, a velocity that very rarely produces a four-bagger. The three other hits were at least 99. 45% of Crim’s balls in play are at least 95 MPH, best on the team. Were this July 2021, I’d be thinking about what he could do at first base in Arlington. Or at least thinking about thinking about it. But it’s not 2021.
Reliever Ryan Tepera had an opt-out and took it. The ex-Angel had pitched well for Round Rock — 8 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 11 SO — with solid if odd underlying data. He generated a 21% swinging strike rate with his slider including 45% of swings, but the respective figures for the fastball/sinker were 2% and 5%. His pitch velocity was fine, his exit velocities were solid. He wasn’t especially strike-prone (59%). Good enough for a look in Arlington? Hard to say. I doubt he would have stood out, but he might have fit in. His addition would have required someone’s spot on the 40, but I think that could have been accomplished.
SP Ryan Garcia: 4 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 70 P / 43 S, 6.75 ERA RP Antoine Kelly: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.90 ERA SS Luisangel Acuna: 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 SB (36), .314/.372/.448 CF Evan Carter: 1-4, BB, SB (11), .303/.412/.453 DH Trevor Hauver: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, .249/.375/.415 RF Kellen Strahm: 2-4, 2B, 2 BB, .240/.346/.335 1B Josh Hatcher: 2-4, HR (3), BB, .340/.353/.553
Luisangel Acuna has only been caught stealing three times. He’s just over two weeks away from his one-year anniversary in AA and the same distance from the trade deadline.
Josh Hatcher was a 2022 pick, but AA is age-appropriate for him. He was a fifth-year senior sign for the princely sum of $1,000 out of Kenesaw State. I know minor leaguers receive more in-kind benefits than in the recent past, but I wish the last CBA had included a minimum bonus of at least $5,000 for any draft pick. Thousand-dollar bonuses don’t befit a huge industry like baseball, and the extra few grand might be really meaningful for some of these players.
Texas released IF Nick Tanielu. Catcher David Garcia is active.
SP Mitch Bratt: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 29 P / 15 S, 3.83 ERA RP Florencio Serrano: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 3.51 ERA RP Ricky DeVito: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 8.68 ERA RP Robby Ahlstrom: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.90 ERA SS Keyber Rodriguez: 2-5, 2 SB (20), .266/.327/.351 CF Daniel Mateo: 2-4, HR (6), .267/.280/.404 2B Jayce Easley: 1-3, BB, 2 SB (16), .203/.353/.244
Mitch Bratt hadn’t pitched in a real game in 12 days, and unfortunately, he barely pitched in this one, failing to compete an inning for the first time this season. Bratt has a dramatic home-road split. I never worry about stuff like that, but it has to be annoying to him and others. Florencio Serrano was able to strand two of three runners, and the bullpen held Greenville in check the rest of the way.
Lo-A: Down East 0, Charleston (TAM) 2 Down East: 4 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 9-7, 0.5 G up, 46-31 overall
SP Joseph Montalvo: 3 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 58 P / 39 S, 1.91 ERA RP Wyatt Sparks: 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 1.31 ERA RP Aidan Curry: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 2.59 ERA
The Woodies’ offense resumed its light-hitting course. Down East has a winning record in the second half despite 3.8 runs and 6.6 hits per game.
Texas promoted RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa to Down East.
Today’s Starters AAA: Lee AA: Krauth Hi-A: Corniell Lo-A: TBD
Five Years Ago Yesterday James Jones made a rehab appearance in Arizona. The Dodgers signed him over the winter but he appeared just once in AAA before falling off my map. A few days ago, he made a rehab appearance in Arizona.
Draft Day 3 11/321. OF Maxton Martin (Age 18.1, Southridge HS [WA], 6’1″, 205) 12/351. RHP Paul Bonzagni (21.2, Southern Illinois Carbondale, 6’3″, 180) 13/381. RHP William Privette (21.4 College of Charleston, 6’6″, 200) 14/411. LHP Josh Trentadue (21.4, College of Southern Idaho, 6’2″, 185) 15/441. LHP Michael Trausch (19.4,Central Arizona College, 6’2″, 190) 16/471. LHP Jake Brown (18.4, Sulphur HS [LA], 6,2″, 180) — 17/501. RHP Kamdyn Perry (17.9, Bishop Gorman HS [NV], 6’4″, 200) 18/531. RHP Brendan Morse (19.1, Niagara County Community College, 6’3″, 185) 19/561. SS Elijah Ickes (18.4, Kamehameha HS [HI}, 6’0″, 175) 20/591. RHP Laif Palmer (18.2, Age 18.2, Golden HS [CO], 6’6″, 209)
Privette is the #252-ranked draft prospect by Baseball America, a relief prospect with a 92 MPH fastball that plays up and misses bats. The secondaries rate weaker.
Brown isn’t this year’s Will Taylor, but the #118 draft prospect per BA and 93rd per MLB.com could conceivably be pried from LSU if the Rangers have extra money available. Brown is polished for his age but light on velocity. Coincidentally, Taylor announced today his intention to forego football in favor of baseball. Taylor had switched from QB to WR (he’s 5’10”) as a sophomore. He batted .362/.489/.523 with five homers and 11 SB in 62 games as an OF for the Tigers this season.
The final pick Palmer is Baseball America’s #219 draft prospect, committed to Oregon State. A fastball in the low 90s with room to improve.
13 of Texas’s 18 picks were pitchers. Of those, five were at four-year colleges, four were at junior colleges, and four came from high school. The other five selections consisted of a college catcher, one high school shortstop, one high school OF, one juco OF, and one Wyatt Langford.
2022 17th-rounder Carson Dorsey, a draft-and-follow from Gulf Coast Community College, did not sign with the Rangers and wasn’t picked in this year’s draft. He’s headed to Florida State.
All the high school picks were born in 2005. I am in pain.
Other News When I mentioned Matt Bush’s release from Milwaukee, I wrote and then deleted a half-joke that he was already headed south. I need to keep that stuff in. Texas has signed Bush to a minor league deal.
Oakland released RHP Joe Wieland. Minnesota released RHP Connor Sadzeck. Detroit released OF Steele Walker. Cleveland signed catcher Sandy Leon.
Rookie: 7-2 record since last report, 12-13 overall, 3.5 GB
Counting stats are for the last two weeks, ERA and slash stats are for the season.
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (Age 22): 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1.35 ERA Biembenido Brito (20): 6 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 SO, 13.06 ERA Bryan Magdaleno (22): 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 3.38 ERA Luis Valdez (19): 4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 4.50 ERA
The three hitters listed above have 55% of the team’s extra-base hits since I reported two weeks ago. Catcher Jesus Lopez, who hasn’t played since the 1st, is the only other player with a homer lately. Walcott and Vargas are tied for fourth in the league in homers. Walcott’s .884 slugging percentage ranks third among players with at least 40 plate appearances. (40 is too low for a fair representation, but Walcott has only 45 PA and it’s my list.) Walcott has played only three of ten games in the field. Vargas is bouncing amongst second, short, and third.
Like last year, Torres has played left, first, and right in decreasing frequency. That defensive profile might conjure an image of an unusually beefy young man, but Torres is a fairly economical 185 on a 6’3″ frame, and his ten steals lead the team. Baseball America placed him 25th on their updated top-30 rankings.
Catcher David Garcia is going to need a rehab stint for his rehab stint. He’s been hit five times in his last 16 trips to the plate.
Biembenido Brito has back-to-back fine outings after getting hammered his first three appearances. Valdez has made only four appearances in six weeks since joining the Rangers in exchange for DFA’ed pitcher Ricky Vanasco. Incidentally, the Dodgers successfully ran Vanasco through waivers. He’s pitched twice for AA Tulsa, avoiding walks but allowing two homers and three runs in 2.2 innings.
The Cubs have used 26 pitchers. 16 have more combined walks and hit batters than innings pitched. As a team, they’ve walked or hit 236 in 211 innings. Yuck.
No games in the US today. Instead, a wrap of Texas’s picks through yesterday. Rounds 11-20 are occurring now. Texas drafted only one high schooler in the first ten rounds.
1st round / 3rd overall. OF Wyatt Langford, U of Florida, Age 21.6, 6’1″, 225 (#3 draft prospect per Baseball America, #3 per MLB.com, #2 per FanGraphs, #2 per The Athletic) As I’d mentioned, some experts suggested the possibility of prepster Max Clark being picked in the top three, but nobody’s mock draft took that leap. The likely outcome was Skenes, Crews, and Langford in the top three, leaving Texas to chose between Clark and Walker Jenkins. That would have been a fine outcome, considering the quality involved, but Detroit instead opted for Clark, offering the Rangers the opportunity to grab the top college player on the board. They accepted. FanGraphs ranks him the #21 prospect in baseball, second in the draft behind Crews at #8.
Langford can hit. His swing is quick, clean, and compact. He generates plenty of lift but also has very solid contact skills and a keen eye. Some amateur experts have graded his speed at 70, but it hasn’t manifested in the form of steals (just nine in 2023) or in reports on his defensive acumen. Langford has mostly played left field in college but could get a chance at a different spot.
My guess is Langford will spend some time out in Arizona, get into a few rookie-level games, and then head to North Carolina, perhaps to high-A Hickory. I don’t stress at all about placement this early. Just having him in the system and on the field is enough for now.
4/108. RHP Skylar Hales, U of Santa Clara, Age 21.7, 6’4″, 220 (#179 per BA, mentioned but not ranked by FanGraphs) As a junior, Hales moved back to a relief role after one year in the rotation, and both his control (7% BB/HBP) and strikeout rate (29%) improved considerably. Per Baseball America, Hales has a mid-90s fastball that has touched 100, a fringy upper-80s slider, and no changeup. I suppose Texas could attempt another go at starting, but relief is the likely outcome. Here’s MLB.com’s video. 5/144. RHP Alejandro Rosario, U of Miami (FL), Age 21.5, 6’1″, 182 (#228 per BA, #212 by MLB) A regular rotation member but shifting between starts on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday as needed, Rosario appears to be a lengthy project despite three busy years at a major college. Rosario’s stuff is impressive: mid-90s fastball touching 100, a high-spin, bat-missing, low-80s slider, a functional upper-80s change, a 25% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, his results have been poor and tracked sideways. He’s prone to both walks (15% BB/HBP rate) and hits (81 including 11 homers in 74 innings). Video from Miami.
6/171. RHP Caden Scarborough, Harmony HS (Harmony, FL), Age 18.2, 6’5″, 185 Scarborough looks under his listed 185 pounds in this video. He’s a giraffe that learned to pitch and struck out 70 in 38 innings as a senior. Diamond Prospect Media reported a 90ish fastball and 70ish curve. Undoubtedly, the Rangers are banking for additional velocity as he ages and fills out. Per this story, Scarborough was offered a scholarship by Dallas Baptist but is leaning pro. One must be wary of such stories, of course, but it has more background info you might find interesting. In their press release, the Rangers noted his prowess at basketball, a topic I personally would have avoided.
7/201. RHP Izack Tiger, Butler County Community College (KS), Age 22.4, 6’2″, 175 Tiger led the Grizzlies with 84 innings, posting a 3.93 ERA (in a very high-scoring league) with 29 walks and 121 strikeouts. A tweet with video from Perfect Game College Baseball reported a 94-97 fastball, 86-90 cutter, and 86-89 changeup in a summer league outing. Kansas-bound if unsigned.
8/231. C Julian Brock, U of Louisiana at Lafayette, Age 22.0, 6’3″, 220 (#371 per BA, #122 per MLB) Brock is listed as a senior on the MLB Draft Tracker but shows as a redshirt junior elsewhere. MLB.com ranked him the seventh-best catching prospect in the draft and suggested he could be picked in the top five rounds, while Baseball America ranked him 22nd. Brock batted .300 the past two seasons but is considered power-first, and he hit 11 homers and 17 doubles in 64 games in 2023. Defense appears adequate.
9/261. OF Quincy Scott, Palomar College (San Marcos, CA), Age 20.4, 6’5″, 220 Batted .438/.522/.648 with six homers, eight steals, and more than twice as many walks as strikeouts in 41 games. (Note: The team slash line was .354/.450/.523.) Also played for Palomar in 2022, and will switch to Cal Santa Barbara if unsigned. 10/291. RHP Case Matter, U of Washington, Age 21.4, 6’2″, 180 (#362 per BA) The Huskies’ quasi-closer. Mid-90s fastball, mid-to-upper-80s slider, upper-70s curve. Good strikeout rate (28% compared to Pac 10 average 21%) but poor control (22% BB/HBP) that forces heavy fastball reliance.
Note: BA ranks 500 players, MLB 250, FanGraphs 68 plus around 120 extra mentions, Athletic 100.
Texas draft picks so far 1. OF Wyatt Langford, Florida 4. RHP Skylar Hales, U of Santa Clara 5. RHP Alejandro Rosario, U of Miami 6. RHP Caden Scarborough, high school, Florida. The draft runs through the 10th round today, followed by the final ten picks tomorrow. Apologies for no draft writeups today, but I’m dealing with a deadline. More tomorrow.
SP Robert Dugger: 6 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 9 SO, 79 P / 55 S, 4.52 ERA RP Alex Speas: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.18 ERA RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 4.02 ERA 1B Blaine Crim: 2-3, 2B, HR (11), BB, .268/.386/.479 LF JP Martinez: 2-3, HR (9), BB, .356/.472/.621
The Round Rock Express have thrown nine pitches at 100 MPH or greater during 2022-2023. Alex Speas has seven of them, including one yesterday at a top speed of 101.5 with nine inches of horizontal run. It was a ball. Speas has mostly thrown what Statcast characterizes as a cutter.
Marc Church has a better swinging strike rate than Speas, but a lower strikeout rate.
I can’t remember when I said I wanted Blaine Crim’s impressive batted ball data to show up in the box score, but lately, it is.
SP Dane Acker: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 52 P / 29 S, 3.86 ERA RP Justin Slaten: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1.42 ERA RP Antoine Kelly: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 3.00 ERA 3B Thomas Saggese: 1-4, HR (13), .316/.384/.524
I haven’t had to wish for better results from Thomas Saggese’s bat for a while now.
Justin Slaten has a 36% strikeout rate and opposing line of .196/.245/.337 in 2023, his first full season strictly in relief. He’s recovered the control that backslide badly in 2022 and then some. Slaten was understandably ignored in last year’s 40-man/Rule 5 transactions, but he’d have to at least be under mild consideration this time around. Its hard to say. I haven’t had a good look at him lately, and there’s no shortage of hard-throwing relievers with potential in the upper minors. It’s easy to fall in love with these types, and next thing you know you’re trying to figure out how to stash half a dozen relief prospects on the 40. There isn’t room.
Hi-A: wet
MiLB says postponed, Winston-Salem says cancelled. The teams do meet again in Hickory during the season’s final week.
Lo-A: Down East 2, at Kannapolis (CHW) 1 Down East: 7 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts Opponent: 5 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 9-6, 0.5 G up, 46-30 overall
SP DJ McCarty: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 47 P / 34 S, 2.66 ERA RP Dylan MacLean: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.60 ERA RP Jacob Maton: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.69 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-2, 2 BB, 3 SB (15), .256/.322/.313
The DMs combined for a solid six innings, and Jacob Maton worked a clean 8th and 9th. Anthony Gutierrez might find some pick-up games around Kinston during the half-week off just to maintain whatever’s working lately. He batted .539/.625/.846 in the series.
Today’s Starters The full-season leagues are off until Friday.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Hickory’s Tyler Phillips fanned 11 in seven innings.
Texas has the fourth pick in the first round of the draft, which starts today at 6pm CDT. Given the apparent certainly regarding the three picks, you might be thinking Texas is once again unlucky, a la 2015, but the new lottery system actually bumped the Rangers three spots above their 7th-worst record from 2022. By all accounts, this draft is exceptionally strong. I’ve seen opinions that any of the top five likely picks would be a worthy 1-1 pick in an average class.
Listed are these five in order of increasing likelihood of availability when Texas chooses:
RHP Paul Skenes (age 21.1, 6’6”, 235, LSU) – Even with the inherent risks of pitchers, especially those with ultra-premium velocity, I haven’t seen Skenes dropping any lower than second. Steady upper-90s heat with plenty 100 and above, a comically hard-to-hit slider, a walk rate under 5%.
OF Wyatt Langford (21.7, 6’1”, 225, Florida) – Crews has been the “household” name for some time, but some prognosticators have Langford going first, at least in part because of Crews’ alleged eight-digit bonus demands. (Technically, Texas could pay Crews an even $10 million but would be drafting a lot of college seniors in rounds 4-10.) The loose consensus is that Langford might have a slightly higher offensive upside than even Crews. A downside of Langford is that his plus speed hasn’t translated to solid defense in the outfield. He’s played mostly in left.
OF Dylan Crews (21.4, 6.0”, 205, LSU) – The top 2023 draft prospect for a long time, placed on this planet to play baseball. A tremendous combination of contact and power, improving strike-zone command, speed, and defense improved enough to make CF a long-term possibility.
OF Max Clark (18.6, 6’1”, 190, high school, Franklin, IN) – The major publications may disagree on order, but all have the previous three players taken in the first three picks, although some have at least mentioned the possibility of someone else sneaking in. That very likely leaves Clark and Walker Jenkins as the top names left on the writers’ boards. Clark is a pure line-drive hitter with terrific speed that translates to the bases and center field. The power profile lags slightly, but a couple of guys Texas has drafted with less flashy power (Jung, Carter) have worked out just fine so far.
OF Walker Jenkins (18.4, 6’3”, 205, high school, Southport, NC) – Bigger and more powerful than Clark, maybe a little less contact but still strongly plus, a little slower and probably more suited to right field in the long run.
Predictions from people who do this for a living:
Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) – Jenkins MLB.com (both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo) — Clark ESPN (Kirby McDaniel) – Clark Athletic (Keith Law) – Clark FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen) – Clark
Now watch the Rangers go and pick Rhett Lowder or somesuch. Last year was a shock.
SP Spencer Howard: 2 IP, 3 H (3 HR), 3 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 48 P / 29 S, 5.68 ERA RP Daniel Robert: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 4.87 ERA RP Chase Lee: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.27 ERA LF Bubba Thompson: 3-4, 2B, BB, .267/.380/.367 CF JP Martinez: 4-5, 2 2B, SB (25), .351/.467/.603 1B Dustin Harris: 2-2, 2B, 2 BB, 2 SB (5), .319/.467/.553
Someone asked about JP Martinez. After years in the .400-.450 range, JPM is now slugging .603, which i wouldn’t have thought possible even in a modest 47-game span. I’d say some his improvement is real and some is luck. Martinez is getting 1-0 counts at a much better rate than his peers, walking more, and striking out less. He’s maximizing his opportunities for success. On the other hand, Martinez’s median and top-range exit velocities are actually slightly below the average of all participants in Round Rock’s games.
In all the negative baskets I created for velo/angle groups — grounders, anything over 45 degrees, soft contact, and “hard but usually caught by an OF” — Martinez has exceptionally high batting averages. For example, he’s hitting .356 on grounders (excluding bunts and balls hit exceptionally hard at barely negative angles). The team is hitting .165. Sure, he’s fast, but even Bubba Thompson batted .194 on grounders last year. All told, Martinez is batting .453 on balls in play (that is, excluding homers and strikeouts), which doesn’t seem sustainable. Remember Joey Butler? I would need to dig into the data deeper, but I just can’t help but be skeptical of a .351/.467/.603 line from him.
Sugar Land is 4-13 against the Express and 35-51 overall with by far the worst run differential.
SP Noah Bremer: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 54 P / 33 S, 7.56 ERA SS Thomas Saggese: 3-5, 2B, .317/.385/.518 1B Josh Hatcher: 2-4, HR (2), .308/.310/.487
14 walks, 249 pitches. Pitching coach Jon Goebel was run in the 7th after an argument with the plate ump at the end of a mound visit. Goebel is a firmly built 6’5″, and I personally would avoid arguing with him when possible.
Thomas Saggese has 354 plate appearances compared to last year’s 441. Assuming identical production, when Saggese equals last year’s trips to the plate he’ll have three fewer singles, identical numbers of doubles, triples, and homers, and 12 additional BB/HBP, all while playing almost entirely at a higher level. He’s having a whale of a season and doesn’t turn 22 until next April.
Danny Duffy didn’t allow a run of his own in one inning but issued three walks, that last of which plated a runner walked by Nick Starr. I was keen on Duffy’s signing, thinking he had a chance at the kind of season Dane Dunning is now: middle relief progressing to the rotation if (when) someone got hurt. At the All-Star break, Duffy has more walks than innings pitched in AA.
SP Larson Kindreich: 1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 40 P / 22 S, 5.70 ERA RP Yohanse Morel: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 2.51 ERA 1B Griffin Cheney: 1-2, HR (1), .174/.291/.239
Larson Kindreich has been bumped early in his last two starts, and five of his 16 appearances have failed to reach two innings. The jump from low to high-A doesn’t receive attention like AA, but the A levels aren’t interchangeable, and Kindreich is still finding himself after dominating at Down East last year.
Lo-A: Down East 1, at Kannapolis (CHW) 2 Down East: 6 hits, 1 walk, 14 strikeouts Opponent: 6 hits, 2 walks, 12 strikeouts Record: 8-6, tied for first, 45-30 overall
SP Leandro Lopez: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 70 P / 46 S, 3.60 ERA RP Gavin Collyer: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0.00 ERA CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-3, 2B, BB, .247/.307/.315
Leandro Lopez allowed fewer than two walks for only the second time this year, and in the other game he permitted six hits in 3.2 innings.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Texas acquired OF Austin Jackson, reliever Cory Gearrin, and LHP Jason Bahr for cash. Texas quickly released Jackson, in the middle of a two-year, $6 million contract, and accepted Gearrin, who was a decent reliever but not of consequence on a team well under .500. The prize was Bahr, a 2017 5th-round pick who’d impressed in his first professional season. Bahr fared best in 2019 between high-A Down East and AA Frisco, but in 2021 at Round Rock he was dispatched to an oddly infrequent relief role fairly quickly. In July 2022 he was released and hasn’t played elsewhere.
