Burger
Late last night, the Rangers acquired 28-year-old 1B/3B Jake Burger from the Marlins for IF Echedry Vargas, IF Max Acosta and LHP Brayan Mendoza. Burger is heroic when he makes contact, clubbing 63 homers and slugging .488 the past two seasons. He hits the ball in the air, hard. He destroys fastballs.
Most else about his game is neutral or worse, chipping at the value created by that contact. He hits for an acceptable average but doesnāt walk much. His career strikeout rate is a lofty 28%. Burger hardly ever steals but grades out surprisingly well in terms of sprint speed and advanced baserunning stats. Burger isnāt a good defender and in 2024, for the first time, spent more days at first or DH than at third. That said, he provides insurance for Josh Jung, whoās been limited to 168 games the last two seasons.
Burger has averaged between 1.5 and 1.8 WAR per season the last two years, depending on source. āAverage regularā is a reasonable if perhaps slightly generous description. Last year, Texasās crowded caravan of DHs (18 of them, none with more than 25 games) batted a lowly .204/.263/.322, so Burger certainly represents a significant upgrade even without much defensive value. He was five days shy of qualifying for Super 2 arbitration status. Heāll make close to the minimum in 2025 and can become a free agent after 2028.
Barring further moves (and Iām expecting further moves), Burgerās acquisition would appear to reduce the upside in Ezequiel Duranās possible playing time, although Duran can man the outfield. Also, whatever small chance 2020 first-rounder Justin Foscue had of making the club out of spring training has dwindled to nothing. Although surely better than his .048/.091/.071 line in 15 MLB games, Foscue hasnāt had a landing spot in Arlington for some time and at this point will really have to force the issue in AAA.
I kind of fell in love with Vargas last March in Surprise. After watching him repeatedly bruise the ball every which way, I couldnāt fathom that he fanned in 24% of his rookie-level plate appearance, and he rewarded me with a 21% rate at low-A in 2024. As a 19-year-old in a tough park and league for batters, he hit .276/.321/.454 including a stellar .310/.352/.508 on the road. On the downside, he simply stopped walking midway through the year (five in his last 49 games), didnāt hit lefties, and committed 27 errors in 86 games at short.
Since around August, Iāve written about middle infielder Max Acosta as much as anyone in the system. In mid-July, he began hitting with unprecedented prowess. He continued to rake in the Arizona Fall League, and the available Statcast data confirmed his .338/.413/.521 line wasnāt a desert mirage. During the summer, Iād offhandedly suggested that Winston Santos and Emiliano Teodo would be Texasās only 40 additions come fall, but Acosta insisted on joining those two.
The 20-year-old Mendoza hasnāt (too my knowledge) received any ink in national publications but was among a group of Down East youngsters who toyed with Carolina League batters before moving on. Heās more than organizational filler. I cause myself trouble trying to rank prospects ordinally but after a momentās thought decided āheās probablyā¦ somewhereā¦ in the 40s.ā Jamey Newberg ranked him 37th in early August. In an August start, Mendoza offered a 90-94 fastball that sat mostly 92-93, a breaker that veered from slurvy 80 to sweepy 86, and a mid-80s change that he wasnāt afraid to employ liberally.
Four years ago, Texas traded OF/āCā Heriberto Hernandez, IF Osleivis Basabe and OF Alexander Ovalles to Tampa Bay for 1B Nathaniel Lowe. I didnāt hate the trade but was uneasy, as Hernandez and Basabe were very much on the rise, plus the penny-pinching Rays were trading the minimum-making Lowe in favor of arbitration-eligible Jiman Choi. Certainly, that trade has worked out terrifically for the Rangers. The point is that Tampa Bay acquired some valuable prospects who ultimately have provided negligible value in the MLB level, limited to 31 light-hitting games from Basabe in 2023. The other two are out of the organization.
Iām not claiming that will reoccur in the Burger trade, but thereās a decent chance. Vargasās inaugural full season was impressive, but Iām not sure where he lands defensively. Acostaās late-2024 upsurge appears legitimate, but is he more than a role player? Mendoza has a shot, too, but also scant experience above low-A.
Nate
Scoutās honor: I heard the Max Fried news (8 years and $218 million) while in my car yesterday and mumbled āEovaldiās getting $25 per.ā Not long after, news came of his three-year $75 million contract. I should take the memory card out of my dashcam and save that moment for posterity. Too much money? Maybe, bordering on probably, but thatās the market, which as a whole has shrugged off the turmoil in local television contracts. Eovaldi will turn 35 before throwing his next regular-season pitch, but his stuff and location have aged admirably. A notable exception is the vertical break on his fastball, which dipped into warning territory in 2024, but opponents slugged only a modest .335 against it.
Webb
Texas also signed RHP Jacob Webb to a one-year deal. Baltimore had non-tendered the arbitration-eligible 31-year old whoād made an even million in 2024. Webb deals a 93ish fastball, low-to-mid-80s slider, and an especially effective mid-80s change.
Rule Five Results
The Rangers didnāt take or lose anyone in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft. In a modest surprise, the second overall pick was former Rangers catcher Liam Hicks, traded in July with RHP Tyler Owens for Tigers catcher Carson Kelly. Detroit added Owens to the 40 had declined to add Hicks. I seriously doubt the Rangers would have protected Hicks had he remained in the organization. Hicks has negligible power but makes contact and draws a zillion walks.
Texas also didnāt select a player in the minor league phase. The Rangers lost RHP Ricky Devito to Miami. Now 26, Devito struck out 30% of his AA opponents last year but also walked or hit an astounding 24%.
Baseball Americaās initial list of āplayers to knowā in the Rule 5 draft included two Rangers, 1B Blaine Crim and LHP Bryan Magdaleno, but neither ranked among āplayers most likely to get picked.ā BA offered Oaklandās Ryan Noda as a template for Crim (as did I in my preview), and suggested Magdaleno could be seen as a low risk with high upside. In a subsequent update, BA added 1B Abi Ortiz as a draft possibility. All remain with the organization.
Tendered
Non-tender day (Nov 22nd) was such a snooze that I didnāt bother to file a report. Texas offered everyone a contract and signed pitchers Dane Dunning and Josh Sborz to team-friendly deals. Sborz will miss at least a third of the season after shoulder surgery.
Gone
OF Sandro Fabian
Japanās Hiroshima club has signed Fabian to a three-year, $5.8 million contract. That Fabian is headed overseas isnāt a surprised, but I wouldnāt have expected such a long and lucrative deal. Fabian made his MLB debut with the Rangers in his ninth professional season, going hitless in five at-bats. He hit 56 homers and 88 other extra-base hits in three seasons in Texasās minor league system.
Here
RHP Adrian Houser (age 31)
Houser is both a former Sooner and Astro, but letās give him a chance. He started 97 games and appeared in 23 others for the Brewers during 2019-2023, posting a 4.04 ERA with between 3.4 and 6.2 total WAR depending on source. Unfortunately, after a trade to the Mets, Houser belly-flopped in his walk year, losing his rotation spot by mid-May and MLB job by late July. House relies on a low-to-mid-90s sinker plus a four-seamer, slider, change and curve. 2024 notwithstanding, Houser is a fine depth signing, someone who conceivably could start some games for the Rangers if he bounces back.
RHP Caleb Boushley (31)
Bousley has sipped coffee with the Brewers and Twins the past two seasons. Heās also averaged nearly 130 minor league innings the past four seasons, and my guess is heāll be last yearās Adrian Sampson, a Triple A inning-eater. And, if the cards fall just right, some swing innings in Arlington.
RHP Bryce Bonnin (26)
A litany of injuries (mostly shoulder) and covid have limited the ex-Red Raider to just 216 innings in seven seasons since graduating high school. Cincinnati flat-out released him last March, less than four years after his selection in the 2020ās third round. He joined the Red Sox and was his usual high-strikeout, high-walk self. He sports a mid-90s heater and low-80s slider.
LHP Michael Plassmeyer (28)
At his best, Plassmeyer befuddles hitters with his control and command and will amass respectable strikeout totals despite an upper-80s fastball augmented with a sweeper and change. Plassmeyer reached the Majors briefly in 2022 and 2023, walking just one in 11 innings but surrendering hits of all varieties at an alarming rate. Iād expect a swing role in Round Rock.
RHP Mailon Felix (25)
The Dominican has never pitched professional in the western hemisphere to my knowledge, although he did sign a contract with a Dominican Winter League club. Felix spent the last three seasons with the farm club of Japanās Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.
Back
RHP Aidan Anderson (27)
Grantās brother, homer-prone but throws strikes.
RHP Reid Birlingmair (28)
Generated a little heat as a possible MLB contender, but AAA hitters have confounded him to date.
RHP Codi Heuer (28)
A capable reliever for both Chicago teams in 2020-2021, Heuer has thrown only 12 (minor league) innings the past three seasons.
RHP Steven Jennings (26)
Like Anderson above, solid in AA, homer-prone with Round Rock.
C Cooper Johnson (26)
Has quietly developed into a power hitter. 10 homers in college, nine in his first four pro seasons, 14 in 2024 with AA Frisco.
IF Keyber Rodriguez (24)
Rodriguez is the only player on this list who originally signed with Texas. His OBP tailed off in AA, but heās versatile ad still fairly young.
OF Luis Mieses (24)
Mieses signed with Texas last year after becoming a free agent out of the White Sox system. He doesnāt run or walk but provides average and power with the bat.
Elsewhere
Catcher Jorge Alfaro signed with Dominican Winter League club Licey recently but has yet to appear. Now 31, Alfaro didnāt play during the 2024 regular season after being released by the Cubs in late March.
RHP Spencer Howard signed with Japanās Rakuten Eagles. Howard returned to MLB with both the Giants and Guardians since leaving Texas but didnāt create the type of resume that would garner more than a non-roster invite in the US. To be honest, his stats appear light for Japan as well, but weāll see.
OF/DH Heriberto Hernandez, part of the aforementioned Lowe trade, became a free agent after playing out his contract and signed a minor deal with the Marlins.
OF Nick Solak signed a minor deal with Pittsburgh.
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