Scott Lucas

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Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid of Lone Star Ball and I chatted this morning. Links in signature.

Rule 5

The Rangers lost 2018 4th-round righty Mason Englert to Detroit with the fifth pick of the Rule 5 draft.

Texas protected six at the 40-man deadline. Englert was seventh of 19 I mentioned in my November preview. What I wrote at the time: “I liked what I saw of Englert in person back in May, but he wasn’t on my crowded list of potential 40-man additions at the time. 13 consecutive no-hit innings and a promotion to AA later, he’s on my list. My potential list, not the final list. Englert has better control than most of his peers and a decent repertoire. A tough call. I’m leaning no, but he’s in a group of five or six pitchers in which I expect at least one to be added.”

An unfortunate (albeit perhaps temporary) loss for Texas. Englert is a well-rounded, genuine rotation candidate but doesn’t throw especially hard, has scant experience above high-A, and doesn’t seem the type you’d just toss into the bullpen, all reasons I thought his selection would be unlikely, if not remote. Best wishes to him.

Baseball America’s exhaustive Rule 5 preview mentioned four Rangers led by Antoine Kelly, the talented but erratic righty acquired in July for Matt Bush. Next on its initial list was a surprise to me in the form of reliever Grant Anderson, who I like but not enough to have mentioned in last month’s preview. Later, BA added 1B Blaine Crim and Englert. MLB.com’s shorter preview didn’t include any Rangers.

The Rangers declined to make a selection in the minor league phase of the draft, although they had room on their AAA reserve roster. They lost three, starting with high-A catcher Randy Florentino to the Orioles. Once fairly well regarded, Florentino’s bat didn’t make the trip with him from the Dominican Republic, although he hit better last year (.242/.332/.353). Next, the Dodgers nabbed OF Josh Stowers, acquired by Texas as part of the Rougned Odor trade. Stowers posted a 20/20 season in 2021 (.220/.311/.466) but traded half his homers for doubles last season (.222/.331/.374). Finally, the Twins selected righty swingman Seth Nordlin (2017, 13th round), who’d pitched effectively in a swing role for Frisco. Of the three, only Nordlin I half-expected to have been protected on the AAA reserve roster.

Draft

Texas was among the lucky contestants in the inaugural draft lottery instituted in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. To dissuade tanking, finishing with the worst record no longer guarantees the top pick in the draft, and every non-playoff team has a shot, from the 1-in-6 chances of Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh, to the 1-in-500 chance of Milwaukee. Texas had a 5.5% likelihood at the first-overall pick, slightly better odds than being dealt a blackjack from a fresh deck. The Rangers weren’t that lucky but managed to acquire the fourth pick despite the seventh-worst record. The Twins were the evening’s big winner, winning the fifth slot despite the 13th-worst record. Conversely, the A’s will pick two spots after the Rangers in 2023 despite their 102-loss season.

Critically, Texas’s draft pool money will increase as well. In 2022, the difference between the fourth and seventh picks was just shy of $1.3 million. That money may simply go to whoever Texas picks in that spot, but maybe some could be employed to coerce a later pick to forego college.

In the second and subsequent rounds, the draft order for non-playoff teams like the Rangers reverts to the old win-percentage method.

Baseball America already has a 2023 mock draft, placing Grand Canyon University SS Jacob Wilson wi the Rangers. If Texas wants a third consecutive Commodore, the choice would be OF Enrique Bradfield.

DeGrom / Heaney

For all the talk of Jake deGrom’s scary injury history, he’s actually thrown the 12th-most innings in baseball during the past nine seasons. (And struck out the third-most batters and accumulated the second-most wins above replacement.) Obviously, the recent history matters most, and I’m not remotely suggesting we should expect durability, but it’s not as though his entire career has been a struggle to stay on the field.

And when he’s on the field, well… sorry, had to dab the sweat off my forehead. 100th percentile SO rate, 99th percentile walk rate, 99th percentile fastball velocity, 97th percentile fastball spin, 93 MPH slider. deGrom has averaged 4.6 WAR per 150 innings. What popped into my head when I heard the news was something I wrote about Pudge Rodriguez back in my fantasy-writing days for ESPN. He’d missed roughly 100 games across 2000-2001, and estimating his draft value was a daunting task. My thought then was that 400 at-bats from Pudge plus 200 from a waiver-wire catcher was worth more than just about any other catcher. I think the same applies here. 120 innings (hopefully) from deGrom plus 60 from whoever’s pitching best in Round Rock (one of the Coles, perhaps) is more valuable than full seasons from most other starters.

Honestly, deGrom might pitch more innings than Andrew Heaney, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016, has dealt with subsequent elbow trouble, and missed much of 2022 with shoulder trouble. Last year, Heaney ditched 100% of his curves and most of his changeups for a murderous slider that drew air in 44% of opposition swings. He remained extremely homer-prone, especially against righties. Globe Life will help some in that regard, but it isn’t the old Yankee Stadium with a 460’ deep left-center.  

For now, the Texas pitchers who faced the second-most (Dunning) and third-most (Otto) opposing batters in 2022 appear to be outside the starting five. Given the risks of deGrom and Heaney, and of pitchers in general for that matter, Dunning might see little to no decline from last year’s 153 innings. As for Otto, how about a Taylor Hearn-like role?

Other News

RHP Nick Snyder became a free agent when the Rangers declined to offer him a contract. I’d noticed that when Texas churned through its minor league reserves down the stretch, Snyder was the only 40-man member with MLB experience not to get the call.

LHP Lucas Jacobsen topped my list of minor league free agents I’d like to return. The Rangers agreed, re-signing him last week.

RHP Drew Strotman remained a Giant after clearing waivers and briefly becoming a free agent. Earlier in 2022, The Rangers has previously claimed him off waivers from Minnesota and then tried to pass him through themselves.

Cleveland signed catcher Meibrys Viloria to a minor league deal.

Baltimore, as required by law, signed OF Nomar Mazara to a minor league deal.

Sean Bass, Michael Tepid and I should have a new podcast up later this afternoon. Links in signature.

40-Man Additions

The Rangers added six players to the 40-Man roster yesterday:

RHP Owen White
IF Luisangel Acuna
IF Dustin Harris
RHP Cole Winn
IF Jonathan Ornelas
RHP Zak Kent

I feel good about my thought process yesterday, if I may say so. Four sure things, a belief that Ornelas seemed the type to be picked if unprotected, and “a group of five or six pitchers in which I expect at least one to be added.” I improved on 2021, when Texas selected only three of the six I expected, omitting OF Bubba Thompson and lefties Cole Ragans and Jake Latz.

Winn, White, and Ornelas are Texas’s top three picks from 2018. Kent is a 9th-rounder from 2019. Harris was acquired with OF Marcus Smith for Mike Minor in 2020, and Acuna was an international free agent.

Available in the Rule 5 draft will be RHP Mason Englert, RHP Antoine Kelly, RHP Avery Weems, LHP Cody Bradford, and 1B Blaine Crim, among others. If any of these names concern you, at least know that they’ll have plenty of company. This MLB Pipeline article shows which top-30 prospects were selected and omitted from every team. 177 top-30 prospects were eligible, but only 78 were selected, leaving 99 top-30 names on the market. Another 35 protected players weren’t in a top 30. Beauty lies in the eye.

Entering yesterday, ten clubs had full rosters, meaning they couldn’t add anybody without jettisoning someone else. The median number of available slots per team was three. Texas, with six open slots, was an outlier.

Here

Lefty Martin Perez accepted Texas’s qualifying offer and will be paid the handsome sum of $19.65 million in 2023. I saw some nationally-oriented writers gobsmacked at the idea of extending that offer to him, and I get it. Perez could very easily devolve to an earlier version of himself, meaning a 150-or-so innings with a 4.75 ERA. Texas could scrounge that up on the open market for much cheaper, and in no universe would Perez get $19 million per year as a free agent. On the other hand, whew, you saw Texas’s rotation last year, right? Plus, the Rangers have several prospects who could help in the not-too-distant future, but nobody in April. The situation is such that Perez’s innings just might be that valuable. An overpay, yes, but just for one year, and not a big deal unless it restrains spending elsewhere.

Texas also traded reliever Dennis Santana to Atlanta for cash.

Elsewhere

Tampa Bay protected IF Osleivis Basabe but declined to protect OF Heriberto Hernandez. Both were part of Texas’s trade for Nathaniel Lowe. Basabe had a whale of a season, reaching AA and batting .333/.399/.461 as 21-year-old. Hernandez, 23 in December, spent the entire season in high-A and hit .255/.368/.499 with 24 homers in 119 games.

I neglected to mention that Hans Crouse’s 40-man spot is now occupied by RHP Luis Ortiz, Texas’s 1st-rounder from 2014 and a reliever in Round Rock last year. Ortiz moved on to the Giants in 2022 and returned the Majors in September.

RHP Matt Bush was so-so for Milwaukee after being traded: 4.30 ERA, 29 strikeouts and 16 hits including six homers in 23 innings. Hard to hit, but hit hard. Now 36, he remains arbitration-eligible.

OF Steele Walker was outrighted by San Francisco in August. He struggled in Sacto: .247/.287/.393. Yesterday, the Giants traded him to Detroit for cash.

OF Willie Calhoun was outrighted in mid-September and became a free agent last month.

OF Zach Reks batted .330/.410/.495 for Lotte in Korea.

I’d mentioned Ronny Henriquez’s MLB debut last month. After that first, rough outing, he allowed a lone run and struck out seven in 7.2 innings divided across two appearances.

To my knowledge, relievers Garrett Richards and Spencer Patton haven’t signed anywhere since being released in-season. Nor has Greg Holland, released back in April.

OF Lewis Brinson was traded from Houston’s AAA affiliate to San Francisco in late August, batted .167/.211/.472 in 16 games as a Giant, and became a free agent.

SanDiego released OF Nomar Mazara in August. Minnesota released 1B Curtis Terry in August.

More minor league free agents: LHP C.D. Pelham, RHP Tyler Ferguson, RHP Ronald Herrera, RHP Ariel Jurado, RHP Keone Kela, RHP Pedro Payano, RHP Connor Sadzeck, RHP Collin Wiles, C Tomas Telis, IF Michael de Leon, IF Ti’Quan Forbes, OF Delino DeShields Jr.

40-Man Maneuvers

Activated from the 60-day Injured List were RHP Josh Sborz, C Mitch Garver, IF/OF Brad Miller, and OF Eli White. Also on the 60 but traded to Cincinnati for cash was OF Nick Solak. Solak batted .252/.327/.372 as a Ranger, not bad in and of itself but not up to par when combined with positional flexibility that lacked plus defense anywhere.

Texas also lost four on waiver claims late last week: C Meibrys Viloria (SFO), RHP Drew Strotman (SFO), IF Andy Ibanez (DET), and RHP Tyson Miller (MIL). Such interest in the back end of the roster of a 68-94 team is surprising, but on the other hand, some or all could be re-run through waivers in the not-too-distant future.

As I’m sure you saw, Texas traded LHP Kolby Allard to his former home of Atlanta for RHP Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi is owed $12.5 million in 2023, but Atlanta shoved a $10 million check made out to Ray Davis in Odorizzi’s pocket. He hasn’t been good since 2019 and probably won’t be next year, but hopefully he can provide 120-130 acceptable innings. Given the condition of the rotation at present, that’s valuable. Also, Allard probably wasn’t long for the 40-man roster, so Texas acquired Odorizzi for someone who had at best a depth role with the Rangers in 2023. Not a bad bit of business.

Texas declined the option on OF Kole Calhoun. RHP Jesus Tinoco was outrighted. Both became free agents. LHPs Matt Moore and Martin Perez, C Kevin Plawecki, and IF Charlie Culberson are also free agents.

All said, Texas’s 40-man roster stands at 34 in anticipation of Tuesday’s roster deadline preceding the Rule 5 draft in early December. I wasn’t expecting the annual roster crunch to be especially crunchy this year, and that seems to be proving the case. Texas had, and to some degree still has, a good number of players whom you wouldn’t mind having around but aren’t likely to be more than depth on next year’s squad. I feel the Rangers can add to the 40 whoever they see fit without worrying too much about crowding. They’ll have to clear room for free agents, of course.

40-Man Additions?

Eligible is everyone not already on the 40 who signed prior to late-August 2018, plus those 19 or older who signed prior to late-August 2019. I count 60 eligible players (see my Rule 5 tab here), although I’m sure I’m off by a few.

RHP Owen White – Yes

IF Luisangel Acuna – Yup

IF Dustin Harris – Yes… if not with quite the assuredness of White or Acuna. Harris had a nice year but didn’t match his awe-inspiring 2021, and an injury limited him to 85 games. Still, he spent most of the year in AA as a 22-year-old and was playing outfield for the first time.

RHP Cole Winn – Yes, despite everything. Imagine another club grabbing him from the pitching-deprived Rangers and “fixing” him next March. It’s too gruesome to contemplate. His stuff remains solid, and if he can iron out the mechanical wrinkles, which he’s done before, he’ll soon be contending for an MLB rotation spot.

IF Jonathan Ornelas – The thought of Ornelas facing MLB pitching next April doesn’t inspire confidence quite yet, but he sure seems like the type who’d get swiped and hang on in a utility role. A contact-oriented bat, some power, some speed, positional flexibility including proficiency at short and center that extends beyond “he can play there if he has to.”

RHP Mason Englert – I liked what I saw of Englert in person back in May, but he wasn’t on my crowded list of potential 40-man additions at the time. 13 consecutive no-hit innings and a promotion to AA later, he’s on my list. My potential list, not the final list. Englert has better control than most of his peers and a decent repertoire. A tough call. I’m leaning no, but he’s in a group of five or six pitchers in which I expect at least one to be added.

LHP Cody Bradford – Not the last guy on this list, but the last I wrote up, because… I don’t know. At his best, Bradford is as unhittable as anyone in the system. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, he was the Frisco’s ace. Bradford’s velocity is deficient by modern standards, but he’s out there pinpointing while many his peers are still struggling with basic control. Could he avoid enough damage on balls in play to fill out a rotation? Work the 5th and 6th after the starter handles the first two times through the order? Maybe. Maybe.

RHP Avery Weems – Tempting. A hard-throwing lefty with a mean slider, better control than I had in mind when reviewing his stats. He’s started most of his career, but I’m inclined to forecast him as a reliever. I lean against adding a reliever who isn’t ready to contribute to the big-league club almost immediately unless he’s clearly of the closer variety. 40-man space is too dear.

RHP Zak Kent – Like Bradford, Kent began the season alarmingly poorly, then regained and surpassed his former stature as the season progressed. I was impressed by his AAA debut, when he succeeded despite having temporarily left his solid slider back in Frisco. He looked like a starter, not a reliever-in-waiting, and more inclined to hit his spots and live with contact rather than trying to bury everyone. Yet another who I don’t have a strong feeling for but could see being added.

RHP Ryan Garcia – Finally active after an eternity on the shelf, Texas’s second-round pick from 2019 pitched well and reached high-A late in the season. I doubt he’s picked, but continued progress could put him on the list in a year.

RHP Antoine Kelly – Seemingly a lock when acquired for reliever Matt Bush in July. Why add a Rule 5-eligible prospect if not to protect him? Perhaps the Rangers thought the same, but Kelly’s already iffy control worsened considerably as a Ranger.

RHP Daniel Robert – Occasionally untouchable with his fastball reaching 98 and a sweeping slider, Robert would look better than half the MLB bullpen one outing and struggle to retire anyone the next. From June onwards, opponents batted only .184/.308/.245, but his ERA was 5.86 because the bad nights were bad indeed. Saying a reliever needs to be more consistent sounds like lazy analysis, I’ll admit, but the upper minors are positively clogged with eye-catching relievers nowadays. The ones who reach and stay in the Majors have set themselves apart with consistency. Whether or not Texas protects him, the Rule 5 draft will feature plenty of Robert-like pitchers.

IF Blaine Crim – Crim just hits: .305/.368/.519, 60 doubles, 61 homers in 295 minor league games. Is it enough? The bar for first basemen is so, so high. Unfortunately, the one place Crim didn’t hit was AAA Round Rock — .278/.298/.296 with underwhelming Statcast data – but Crim has always been streaky, and he was there for only 13 games. He strikes me as someone more likely to force the issue in-season than to get a spot now.  

LHP Grant Wolfram – Earned a trip to Arizona this fall and pitched well in the desert. Wolfram switched to relief in AA, continued to miss bats, and kept the ball in the part much better than at Hickory, but his control tumbled to a combined 18% BB/HBP rate.

IF Davis Wendzel – Like fellow Big Twelver Josh Jung, Wendzel played up the middle a fair amount in college. Unlike Jung, Wendzel appears to have some genuine positional flexibility,  and he flexed substantial power late in the season. Unfortunately, nearly 40% of his plate appearances ended with a strikeout or popup. He’s also missed more time to injury than Jung, which is saying something. Maybe next year.

OF Kellen Strahm – Strahm batted .314/.417/.482 from June onwards after a poor start. He has a real shot, but I think the likely scenario is standing out in Round Rock when the parent club has need for an outfielder.

OF Jayce Easley – Easley had a terrific fall in Arizona (.375/.556/.583) while playing everywhere but first and catcher, somewhat belying his regular season stats (.230/.372/.345) and nearly complete absence from the infield the past two years. A future, perhaps, but 2023 is too soon.

IF Chris Seise – The former first-rounder thankfully made it through the season in one piece, but he won’t be added.

Minor League Free Agents

Another 25 Rangers minor leaguers became free agents late last week, mostly by accruing enough service time. A rundown of some:

RHP Jean Casanova – Much more promising than his 35th-round status would suggest, Casanova missed all of 2022 to an elbow injury and tossed only 52 innings the last four seasons.

RHP Scott Engler – Deep repertoire for a reliever, reached AAA until felled by a torn elbow ligament. Has a shot.

RHP Demarcus Evans – Among the most dominant minor league relievers I’ve covered, wiping out batters with a high-spin fastball and hammer curve. As he reached the Majors, his velocity declined, and incorporation of a cutter/slider didn’t help. He could make it back, but it won’t be easy if he’s still throwing 91.

RHP Kelvin Gonzalez – Low-A Hickory’s relief ace during 2019’s deep playoff run. Reached the upper 90s then but missed 2021 with elbow surgery and didn’t pitch much last season.  

RHP Kevin Gowdy – Part of the Kyle Gibson / Ian Kennedy trade. A 9.90 ERA with matching peripherals in 40 AA innings in 2022.

LHP Lucas Jacobsen – Injuries, covid, and an eternity in the lower levels left me totally ignorant about Jacobsen entering 2022. He immediately impressed with a nice outing during Jack Leiter’s pro debut, and after missing yet more time, he fanned 20 in 14.2 innings in AAA. If I had the power to unilaterally renew one free agent’s contract, it would probably be his. Perhaps David Garcia.

RHP James Jones – Seven (!) years in the organization following the Leonys Martin trade. The converted outfielder’s fastball velocity has ranged from 90 to 100.

RHP Fernery Ozuna – Lost a few tics on the fastball but compensated with a often staggering changeup. His walk rate quintupled upon promotion to AAA Round Rock.

RHP Ryder Ryan — Ryan delivers mid-90s with ease plus an occasionally impressive slider. Righties have batted only .204/.290/.358 with a 30% K rate against him the past two seasons in Round Rock, while lefties have clubbed .315/.416/.545.

C David Garcia – Garcia lacks the required seven years of service time but had already reached free agency after 2021 when released and re-signed. He became the exemplar of “not at all ready for MLB but not worth losing” when added to the 40-man roster despite no full-season experience after 2019. Still just 22, Garcia’s bat has yet to warm to AA pitching, but I wouldn’t count him out yet. Catchers take time.

C Yohel Pozo – Pozo once again hit AAA pitching with comical ease, albeit with less power than in 2022. He also got, well, kind of big over the previous winter, although I don’t know how much that mattered since he almost exclusively DH’ed during his 2021 stint in Arlington.  

IF Sherten Apostel – Injuries limited Apostel to 87 games the past two years, he’s pretty much a 1B now, and his impressive power is undermined by a huge miss rate.

OF Miguel Aparicio – Briefly a top ten prospect, Aparicio spent an eternity in Hickory before finally breaking out in 2021, but success in Frisco eluded him.

OF Josh Sale — Sale batted .229/.343/.420 in 72 games with Round Rock, exceptional for a 30-year-old out of affiliated ball for eight years but not enough to warrant a 40 spot.

Arizona Fall League

The season ended Saturday with a victory in the championship game by Surprise. IF Luisangel Acuna, OF Trevor Hauver, and RHP Grant Wolfram had the honor of playing both on Saturday and in Frisco’s Texas League championship-clinching victory in late September. Down East OF Jayce Easley was Surprise’s RF and leadoff hitter Saturday. RHPs Daniel Robert, Kumar Rocker, and Nick Starr, C Cody Freeman, and OF Aaron Zavala appeared for Surprise during the season but didn’t play Saturday.

Acuna made a game-saving catch-and-throw in the bottom of the 9th. More on the AFL later.

Elsewhere

Tampa Bay hired Jon Daniels as a senior advisor. You may recall Daniels as the former general manager and then president of baseball operations for the Texas Rangers.

Philadelphia designated righty Hans Crouse for assignment and successfully ran him through waivers. Texas’s 2017 second-rounder quickly reached the Majors after being traded along with Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy, but he spent much of 2022 injured and didn’t pitch well in AAA.

Oakland claimed former Texas IF Yonny Hernandez on waivers and designated former Texas minor leaguer RHP Collin Wiles.